Wondering what is expected for Calgary's housing market in 2025? It's shaping up to be an interesting year, with several factors influencing the landscape.
Strong Demand Continues
This year, housing demand is expected to stay above long-term trends. Past gains in population and employment have laid a solid foundation, and with lending rates easing, more people are finding it feasible to enter the market. Plus, better supply options mean there's more variety for buyers. However, it's worth noting that migration is slowing from its record highs, and new home construction is ramping up, leading to increased competition. Economic uncertainties also loom, which might put a lid on further growth in resale activity. Despite these challenges, sales are forecasted to surpass 26,000 units, reflecting a robust market that's about 20% higher than long-term trends.
Alberta's Economic Outlook
Alberta's economy is set for stronger growth, estimated at 2.5% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, outpacing the national rate. This growth is fueled by strong energy sector performance, emerging sectors like technology and petrochemicals, and continued interprovincial migration. While falling interest rates will support a rebound in consumer spending, trade uncertainty and a slowdown in international migration will create headwinds. Source: ATB.COM
Population Growth and Employment Trends
Record-high international migration, combined with the resurgence of interprovincial migration, has been a key driver of housing activity in recent years. Although migration levels in Alberta are starting to ease, they remain exceptionally strong. Looking ahead to 2025, federal immigration policy changes are expected to slow the influx of both temporary and permanent international migrants. Interprovincial migration is projected to slow from the elevated levels seen in recent years, bringing Alberta's population growth rate down to 1.9% in 2025. While Calgary's population growth is also expected to slow, it is anticipated to remain higher than the provincial average.
In 2024, Calgary's employment growth exceeded expectations, thanks to notable gains in manufacturing, accommodation and food services, transportation and warehousing, and information, culture, and recreation sectors. Looking ahead to 2025, employment levels are expected to grow by 2%, driven by gains in construction, retail trade, healthcare, and education. At the same time, easing migration is projected to slow labor force growth, helping reduce unemployment rates by the end of 2025.
Market Shifts on the Horizon
While overall sales levels are expected to remain stable, we might see changes in where these sales are happening. Rental rates are easing, thanks to higher completions and a slowdown in international migration, which could impact the condominium market. On the flip side, lower lending rates, improved supply, and continued (though slower) migration from other provinces are likely to boost detached home sales.
Housing Market Segments
Detached Homes: A limited supply of lower-priced detached homes constrained sales activity in 2024, with declines in the lower price ranges outweighing growth in the upper end of the market. Overall, detached sales fell by over 2% but aligned with long-term trends. Persistently tight market conditions throughout the year drove an 11% annual increase in benchmark prices. However, by the second half of the year, new listings in higher price ranges helped ease seller market conditions at the upper end.
Looking ahead to 2025, the supply of listings priced above $600,000 is expected to improve as inventory options increase. Easing lending rates and pent-up demand should offset the impact of slowing population growth, keeping sales slightly higher than last year and aligned with historical trends. The market's shift toward more balanced conditions is anticipated to moderate price growth to 3% in 2025. Price trends will vary by location and price range, with lower-priced homes within their respective communities experiencing stronger growth than higher-priced properties.
Semi-Detached Homes: The limited availability of lower-priced detached homes drove many buyers to semi-detached properties in 2024. Semi-detached sales increased by nearly 5%, marking a fourth consecutive year of above-average activity. As affordability challenges persist, this trend is expected to continue, with more buyers opting for semi-detached homes.
Supply constraints in 2024, especially for lower-priced options, kept the market in seller-favored conditions, resulting in an annual price gain of nearly 11%. New semi-detached starts rose for the fourth straight year, with year-to-date figures surpassing annual totals from the previous three years. Although semi-detached starts remain a consistent share of total construction activity, the growth in starts is expected to support some supply gains in 2025. Rising inventory relative to sales should help ease price pressures, but prices are still projected to increase by over 3% in 2025.
Row Homes: After a prolonged period of limited inventory, a surge in new listings in 2024 led to rising inventories in the year's second half, alleviating some pressure on prices. However, strong sales ensured seller-favored conditions for much of the year, driving a 14% annual increase in prices. Price growth varied across the city, with the most affordable East and North East districts experiencing the fastest gains.
Inventory growth was concentrated in properties priced above $400,000, which accounted for 77% of all inventory—up significantly from 63% last year. Demand for affordable row homes is expected to support sales activity in 2025, but increasing supply in the resale and new home markets will slow price growth. Conditions will vary by location and price range, with higher-priced units facing more competition and reducing upward price pressure.
Apartments: Limited supply in lower price ranges encouraged many buyers to turn to apartment-style homes over the past two years, depleting inventory in the most affordable segments. Most of the inventory growth in 2024 occurred for units priced above $300,000, leaving less than 30% of the inventory priced below $300,000.
Despite some adjustments within specific market segments, continued population growth should maintain strong absorption levels across Calgary. However, the market is likely to exhibit a more balanced state compared to the past three years.
In summary, Calgary's housing market in 2025 is poised for stability with moderate growth. While challenges exist, the city's strong foundation and adaptive market dynamics suggest a positive outlook for both buyers and sellers.